Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Card Counting Facts

Counting cards was first proven to beat the game of blackjack in 1956 by a mathematician named Roger Baldwin. Since then; names like Ken Uston, Lawrence Revere, Stamford Wong and Edward Thorpe have added their own additions to card counting strategies. It is a simple method that is used to tell us when we are more likely to win or lose the next hand in the game of blackjack, (it's a little like predicting the future). It tells us when the ratio of big cards outweighs the ratio of small cards which is crucial in beating the game. The three things that card counting tells us are: when the dealer is more likely to break (get over 21), when we are more likely to get better hands and when our chances of getting blackjack have increased.

With the revolution of the computer age came the invention of the simulator. These simulators can calculate any outcome within an accuracy of 99.98%; they are used in almost all fields including math, science and aerodynamics. They can simulate any event millions of times in a short period so that the outcome can be analyzed for results. We have used these simulators to calculate the exact way to play, the exact way to bet, the exact amount of bankroll you need for any size table and the exact amount of money you will make every hour that you play. There are very few people that have actually done this but the good news is one of them has...

There are typically 3 different levels of card counting strategies that you could choose to learn. The value assigned to each individual card determines its complexity and accuracy. As cards are being dealt during a game of blackjack, it affects the cards that remain. Having a value assigned to each card as they are dealt allows you to mathematically determine whether the remaining cards have increased your chances of winning or not. Each card affects the remaining cards slightly differently than the other; it is for this reason only that Level 2 and Level 3 counts exist. The benefit of using a Level 2 or a Level 3 count is that they are more accurate and therefore increase your overall profit. Finding the perfect balance between ease and accuracy however is crucial.

Level 1: This count is most often referred to as a High/Low count, it is the easiest to learn but will yield the least amount of profit. Each card is assigned either a value of +1 or -1.

The assigned values are as follows:
• 2 through 6. These cards are counted as +1 as they are dealt.
• 7, 8`s and 9`s. These cards are assigned no value and are therefore ignored as they are dealt.
• 10`s and Aces. These cards are counted as -1 as they are dealt.

Level 2 and Level 3 counts have different values assigned to each card (instead of just +1 or -1). In a level 2 count some cards will be assigned a value of +2 and -2, and obviously in a level 3 count some cards will have a value of +3 or -3. Level 3 counts are more difficult to do at the table; this increases stress and can cause an unacceptable amount of mistakes that can ultimately cost you your overall advantage.

Factors that affect the overall advantage of card counting:
• The knowledge of basic strategy.
• Knowing when and how to violate basic strategy when it is required.
• The method used to convert the running count into the true count.
• The betting spread that is applied.
• The number of decks in the game (single, double or multi deck).
• Penetration points (where the dealer places the cut card to signify a reshuffle)
• The amount of hands played per hour.
• The casino rules.
• Which level count is being applied!

*These are all of the factors that affect your overall advantage when counting cards. The more accurate your count is the less these factors will influence your hourly rate, bankroll requirements and length of losing periods, etc. More information on these factors below

Q1. Is there any betting system that can beat the game... No!

Without going into the complete logistics of the game, we have found it impossible to beat any game that has a natural disadvantage with any betting system (such as a progressive, anti progressive or martingale system). Since time began man has been trying to devise the `perfect` system to beat the casino`s (or any other game or sport, etc) but has never been able to do it. The fact that casinos still exist and are flourishing is testament to this fact. If there was such a system it certainly wouldn't remain a secret for long, mankind is not very trustworthy with keeping secrets, especially one of this magnitude.

You can find these so called `perfect systems` in almost any form of media. Some of them are very well written and full of hype and are even extremely tempting to try but the truth is none of them work. The only people making money from these so called `perfect systems` are the people selling them. If any of them worked it would actually destroy the game it was designed to beat and therefore the game would no longer be offered to the public.

The bottom line is... any system you use, whether it's a card counting strategy or a betting system; it has to actually give you an advantage over the game for it to work. Any `system` that claims to be able to beat a game with a natural disadvantage just by the way you bet is a lie. No matter how much you bet or how you bet it, a betting system will NOT eliminate the disadvantage any game has over you. The reason that card counting works is simple; the proven mathematical based strategies actually give an advantage over the game itself.

Q2. Does card counting work and is it worth doing... Yes!

There are three questions that need to be answered here:
1. Is it easy enough so that anyone can do it?
2. How much bankroll do I need to start?
3. Does it make enough money to live on?

I have studied and tested every card counting method available, millions of simulations were needed to be run on each individual method and each individual hand to compare one against the other. I tested them for two things, ease and accuracy. It's of no use to learn the most difficult card counting method if it`s too hard to do at the table. It is also of no use to learn the easiest card counting method if it doesn't make enough money to easily replace an income.

Problems with blackjack
• Most card counting strategies are too difficult to do at the table
• Almost all card counting courses do not arm you with all of the information you need. They don't tell you things like bankroll requirements, how much you will make per hour on different size tables or how different casino rules or the amount of decks in play affect your overall percentage. Other pertinent information such as penetration points or camouflage methods is also missing.
• The most important thing about any card counting method is that it has to be the easiest to do and the most accurate possible. Having this perfect combination eliminates mistakes and makes you the most money per hour. This allows you to start with the smallest bankroll and secure your profits in the smallest amount of time.

Having the perfect combination of Ease and Accuracy will:
• Allow you to start with the smallest bankroll
• Be very easy to do which will eliminate mistakes
• Make as twice as much per hour as all other card counters
• Be unaffected by bad casino rules
• Secure your hourly profits quicker than any other count

All of the relevant factors about the game of Blackjack, explained.

Basic Strategy: Basic strategy is a set of rules that tell you when to hit, stand, double or split. It gives you the optimum mathematical decision to make in almost every situation.

Violations to Basic Strategy: There are some situations when basic strategy is not the optimum way to play a hand. This is determined by the hand we have and the true count at the time. When both of these occasional criteria are met at the same time, we temporarily change our basic strategy to reflect the optimum mathematical decision.

Converting the Running Count into the True Count: The true count is simply the running count divided by the amount of ½ decks left in the game. For example; if you're running count was +8 and there was 1 deck left in the un played cards, your true count would be +4 (1 deck = 2 x ½ decks, so the equation is simply 8 divided by 2). The true count determines how to play the hand (whether we are temporarily changing our basic strategy or not) and how much to bet on the next hand, therefore this calculation has to be done just prior to making both of these decisions.

The Betting Spread: The betting spread is simply the amount you bet on your next hand according to the true count. It has to be sufficient enough to give you a good hourly rate without attracting any undue attention in the casino.

The Number of Decks in the Game: The amount of decks in the game will directly affect your overall advantage. Every deck that is added to a game of blackjack reduces your overall advantage by.10 percent. This means that if your overall advantage on a single deck game was 2%, it would be reduced to around 1.3% in an 8 deck game. It is therefore obviously better to play a single or double deck game as opposed to an 8 deck shoe game.

Penetration Point: The penetration point is where the dealer puts the cut card to signify where the last hand will be before the cards are reshuffled. As long as the dealer is not cutting off more than a quarter of the cards prior to dealing them, then this will not be an issue (this reduces the number of profitable hands you get to play before the cards are reshuffled). If a dealer is consistently cutting off more than a quarter of the cards it will make the game unprofitable.

The Number of Hands Played Per Hour: To calculate how much any card counting method will make per hour you need to know two things: how many hands you play in an hour and the overall advantage your card counting method gives you. The advantage that counting gives you means that you actually make x amount of profit per hand, so the more hands you play; the more profit you make. A conservative number of hands you will play per hour are around 100. Casino`s expect their dealers to have a competency rate of over 100 hands per hour.

Casino Rules: Some casino`s have slightly different rules than others when it comes to their blackjack tables. Some casino`s for example will let you re-split aces or double on any first two cards where others won`t. The rules that you find from one casino to another only differ slightly and don`t have any real bearing on your overall advantage, or your hourly rate. Most casino`s offer rules that players like, this is to entice players to play at their establishment.

Different Level Counts: This factor is one of the more important. Your overall advantage is mainly determined by the values given to each of the individual cards. The accuracy of your counting method effects everything, it affects how much bankroll you need, how much you will make every hour and how long you could wait before your hourly rate is realized. Using a level 2 count that is both easy and accurate (instead of a basic High/Low count) will almost double your profits and halve your bankroll requirements. Having a count that is both easy and accurate is considered to be a perfect combination.

About the author
With the assistance of a professor of statistics I have studied and tested every card counting method available. I have also dealt and supervised the game in Australia and the United States. Millions of simulations were needed to be run on each individual method and each individual hand to compare one against the other. I went on further to find out how much bankroll was needed to start and how much each betting spread made per hour. This crucial information was developed by me and is not available anywhere else.

Access to the `Perfect Count` can be gained by clicking the link below. This perfect combination of both ease and accuracy contains everything that has been mentioned above. This is the Perfect Count.


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